We’ve heard a lot in the last year about how the semiconductor industry could become a $1 trillion market by 2030 in the U.S. with its current growth trajectory. But it’s not as simple as that, as we don’t have the fab capacity—even with the 109 fabs planned to come into operation by 2026, SEMI president and CEO Ajit Manocha said in his opening keynote at the SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS 2024) in Vienna, Austria last week.

In a video interview with EE Times, we delved deeper into the numbers and discussed other challenges the industry faces. Manocha talks about the opportunities from AI and the next wave, quantum computing, to drive the market to $5 trillion by 2050; the implication of the news from India, where he is also on the advisory panel for semiconductors, about its latest $15 billion investments into the ecosystem in the country; and about the impending ban on PFAS, the synthetic chemicals vital to produce semiconductors.

Here are some extracts from his conversation:

 

Materials will be needed to deliver for AI and quantum computing

Manocha said the biggest issue with AI is that it’s a huge energy guzzler. “So, we need to address that challenge. AI’s new wave will not work unless we develop materials that will make the chips cooler and faster,” he said. “And there are bigger challenges with quantum. Especially in making quantum computers work at room temperature. Without solving heat dissipation or energy conservation problems, AI and quantum computing will slow down. The opportunities are huge, but the challenge is also huge.”

Quantum and its opportunity to drive a $5 trillion market by 2050

He said, “Why am I so inspired by quantum computing? Well, it will give a lot more clarity of things like tsunamis and earthquakes, for example. If quantum computing can predict there will be a problem here, there or somewhere, then you can better control your own destiny. I feel that quantum computing will bring a lot of benefits to humanity.”

Fab capacity isn’t enough to meet the $1 trillion target by 2030

He said, “In our last quarterly data that we published, 109 fabs are coming into operation around the world by 2026. And 89 of those 109 fabs are already at some stage of ground-breaking or construction or first equipment or first wafer. Our rough calculation suggests that between 2026 and 2030, there may be close to some 100 fabs coming up.”

Fabs are important for wider job creation

Manocha explained why jobs in fabs are also important to the ordinary person. “Each fab has some 2,000 people working in them, and these are high paying jobs. And for every one employee in a fab, there are five employees in the ecosystem around the fab,” he said. “So, you can say each fab brings 10,000-12,000 people—so, multiply by 100 plus fabs and you can see how many people we are talking about. So, this is a big growth factor for the regions where the fabs are coming. Fabs equate to opportunities for jobs.”

India and other hubs for new fabs

He said, “I’ve seen big growth in southeast Asia. For example, Vietnam is stepping up on back-end type activities, Malaysia is too. On the front-end activities, India has been talking about this for years, but their policy was not really properly defined. For the first time [now], India has done the right thing. And many other factors and policies are all aligned for India. Now with the right policy and with the two ministers who have a fairly deep background in semiconductors, along with a visionary prime minister, I think there’s a lot of good focus on India. It has a lot of talent, it doesn’t have the ecosystems yet, but the policy supports bringing the ecosystem. I think their approach is right.”

He added, “It’s a good start, the credit goes to Micron, who took the first leap of faith and said we believe in this policy, and they will be a big catalyst for other companies and that catalyst is working. So, we have three announcements in the last week—one for assembly and test by Tata, and another Tata fab, and there’s another III-V compound fab. I think that’s a start, but that’s not going to cut it—we need many more [of these] announcements. The potential is there in India, if they do it right, and if they integrate with the rest of the world and ensure the ecosystem comes.”

Talent shortage

In his keynote, Manocha talked about how the talent shortage is a serious problem. In our interview, he said, “The semi industry needs STEM-based talent. The problem with STEM talent in the U.S. and Europe is that STEM enrolment in elementary school has gone down by a factor of two in the last two or three decades. Whereas in Asian countries, due to population control, the STEM population has gone down, while in the U.S. and Europe, the interest in STEM has gone down.”

He added, “People don’t understand—the semi industry is a transformational industry. Challenges we have like climate challenges, semi can be part of the solution there. So, young kids, if you’re watching this, if you come into the semiconductor industry, you’ll be transforming the world. This is really an important future for you guys. You can change the world, and you will rule the world.”

PFAS ban and its impact on the chip industry

Manocha explains that PFAS are used in many parts of life, for example in Teflon coating. “It’s harmful if you consume it. [But] our industry is very responsible. While PFAS is used in many processes, our industry doesn’t put PFAS in the environment. But the things around the chip have PFAS in them. If regulators put the ban on PFAS, then what you experienced during pandemic with the chip shortage, it will shut down the world,” he said.

“So, we need to work with regulators and universities to make sure that we do not harm human beings, we do not harm the planet. PFAS is one of the crises we are facing right now. But the good news is that the policymakers around the world are working with the semi industry to figure out how we make sure that we do not harm our society and yet keep this industry going.”

Quantum and its opportunity to drive a $5 trillion market by 2050

He said, “Why am I so inspired by quantum computing? Well, it will give a lot more clarity of things like tsunamis and earthquakes, for example. If quantum computing can predict there will be a problem here, there or somewhere, then you can better control your own destiny. I feel that quantum computing will bring a lot of benefits to humanity.”

Fab capacity isn’t enough to meet the $1 trillion target by 2030

He said, “In our last quarterly data that we published, 109 fabs are coming into operation around the world by 2026. And 89 of those 109 fabs are already at some stage of ground-breaking or construction or first equipment or first wafer. Our rough calculation suggests that between 2026 and 2030, there may be close to some 100 fabs coming up.”

Fabs are important for wider job creation

Manocha explained why jobs in fabs are also important to the ordinary person. “Each fab has some 2,000 people working in them, and these are high paying jobs. And for every one employee in a fab, there are five employees in the ecosystem around the fab,” he said. “So, you can say each fab brings 10,000-12,000 people—so, multiply by 100 plus fabs and you can see how many people we are talking about. So, this is a big growth factor for the regions where the fabs are coming. Fabs equate to opportunities for jobs.”

India and other hubs for new fabs

He said, “I’ve seen big growth in southeast Asia. For example, Vietnam is stepping up on back-end type activities, Malaysia is too. On the front-end activities, India has been talking about this for years, but their policy was not really properly defined. For the first time [now], India has done the right thing. And many other factors and policies are all aligned for India. Now with the right policy and with the two ministers who have a fairly deep background in semiconductors, along with a visionary prime minister, I think there’s a lot of good focus on India. It has a lot of talent, it doesn’t have the ecosystems yet, but the policy supports bringing the ecosystem. I think their approach is right.”

He added, “It’s a good start, the credit goes to Micron, who took the first leap of faith and said we believe in this policy, and they will be a big catalyst for other companies and that catalyst is working. So, we have three announcements in the last week—one for assembly and test by Tata, and another Tata fab, and there’s another III-V compound fab. I think that’s a start, but that’s not going to cut it—we need many more [of these] announcements. The potential is there in India, if they do it right, and if they integrate with the rest of the world and ensure the ecosystem comes.”

Talent shortage

In his keynote, Manocha talked about how the talent shortage is a serious problem. In our interview, he said, “The semi industry needs STEM-based talent. The problem with STEM talent in the U.S. and Europe is that STEM enrolment in elementary school has gone down by a factor of two in the last two or three decades. Whereas in Asian countries, due to population control, the STEM population has gone down, while in the U.S. and Europe, the interest in STEM has gone down.”

He added, “People don’t understand—the semi industry is a transformational industry. Challenges we have like climate challenges, semi can be part of the solution there. So, young kids, if you’re watching this, if you come into the semiconductor industry, you’ll be transforming the world. This is really an important future for you guys. You can change the world, and you will rule the world.”

PFAS ban and its impact on the chip industry

Manocha explains that PFAS are used in many parts of life, for example in Teflon coating. “It’s harmful if you consume it. [But] our industry is very responsible. While PFAS is used in many processes, our industry doesn’t put PFAS in the environment. But the things around the chip have PFAS in them. If regulators put the ban on PFAS, then what you experienced during pandemic with the chip shortage, it will shut down the world,” he said.

“So, we need to work with regulators and universities to make sure that we do not harm human beings, we do not harm the planet. PFAS is one of the crises we are facing right now. But the good news is that the policymakers around the world are working with the semi industry to figure out how we make sure that we do not harm our society and yet keep this industry going.”

https://www.eetimes.com/well-need-many-more-fabs-to-meet-1-trillion-by-2030-goal/