UBS, the Swiss bank, has said power supply and data centre construction can support the capacity implied by its semiconductor estimates through 2030, but it depends heavily on early-stage power projects coming to fruition

It estimates about 340GW of cumulative incremental compute capacity will be deployed between 2026 and 2030, based on its accelerator estimates across Nvidia, AMD and AI ASICs.

Adjusting for a power usage effectiveness ratio of 1.12, UBS estimates the requirement at about 380GW of data centre facility capacity.

The analyst sees line of sight to about 415GW of new power, with about 307GW from the grid and about 108GW from generators sited behind the meter, meaning on site.

That requires about 150GW of early-stage on-grid projects to be converted into completed power plants, alongside additional behind-the-meter capacity of about 108GW.

UBS Evidence Lab estimates about 276GW of global data centre capacity is under construction or planned, leaving about 102GW of unannounced projects needed to reach the 378GW implied by UBS’s estimates.

Near-term gaps are tighter, with 2027 needing about 57GW against 38GW of confirmed powered capacity, and 2028 needing about 76GW against 50GW.

Closing them requires 40% to 50% of about 50GW of early-stage projects in each of 2027 and 2028 to convert, which UBS says needs supportive legislation and limited supply chain delays.

Risks include New York’s one-year moratorium on new data centres above 20 megawatts and lead times of up to 210 weeks for large power transformers.

UBS says the analysis points to upside for Nvidia, the chipmaker, with implied data centre revenue of $876 billion in 2027 against $714 billion in its model.

Custom chips known as application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) should rise from about 35% to 45% of deployed capacity, but UBS expects them to capture only about 30% of revenue.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-now-expects-ai-capex-045010389.html?shem=aimgspe,