The AI spending spree has a new headline number. A Morgan Stanley report projects global AI-related capital expenditures will hit approximately $1.58 trillion by 2027, a figure often rounded to $1.6 trillion.

The more striking part is where that money is expected to land. Nvidia could collect approximately $690 billion of it, rounded to $700 billion in some assessments. That would make one chipmaker the biggest beneficiary of one of the largest corporate building cycles on record.

Following the money

Morgan Stanley’s math works like a funnel. Roughly 65% of total AI capex, or about $1.03 trillion, is expected to flow to companies in the S&P 500.

Nvidia is then expected to take about two-thirds of that S&P 500 share.

The forecast also got bigger recently. Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 total by about 14% after accounting for lease obligations that had not previously been included in the count.

Leases are a quieter form of spending. A company that rents data center capacity instead of building it still commits real money to AI, it just shows up in a different line of the financial statements. Once Morgan Stanley started counting those commitments, the total climbed.

By category, semiconductors and servers are projected to account for about 42% of 2027 AI capex, or approximately $672 billion.

Nvidia’s own numbers point the same way

The bank’s projection lines up with what Nvidia itself has been telling investors. On the company’s fiscal Q2 2027 earnings call, CFO Colette Kress indicated expectations that hyperscaler capex would approach $800 billion in 2026 and reach around $1.3 trillion in 2027.

Nvidia is expected to capture about $700 billion of a $1.6 trillion AI capex boom