AS  lockdowns lift across the rich world, people are going out and spending. Australia’s restaurants have been crammed for months. America’s shopping malls are filled with people splurging stimulus cheques. Cinemas in Britain, which were allowed to reopen in mid-May, are packed once again. Yet behind the scenes another, potentially more significant, spending bonanza is just beginning.

Businesses are starting to invest in huge numbers. In America capital spending (or capex) by companies is rising at an annual rate of 15%, both on the hard stuff, such as machines and factories, and intangibles, like software. Firms in other parts of the world are also ramping up spending. Forecasts for business investment have never looked so rosy. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, a bank, predict a “red-hot capex cycle”. Overall global investment, they reckon, will soar to 121% of pre-recession levels by the end of 2022 (see chart 1). Oxford Economics, a consultancy, argues that “the time looks right for a boom in capex”, while ihs Markit, a research firm, forecasts that global real fixed investment will rise by more than 6% this year.