BlackRock has predicted that the private credit’s assets under management (AUM) could reach $4.5tn (£3.5tn) by 2030 due to market forces, technology, and regulation.

In the firm’s Q2 Global Credit Quarterly outlook, the asset manager said that the private credit market has grown into a sizable, scalable, stand-alone asset class which is no longer reserved for niche financing solutions, or exclusively for lending to smaller, middle market borrowers.

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“The continued expansion of private credit’s addressable markets acts as a structural tailwind for its growth,” the report stated.

“We see scope for private credit AUM to reach $4.5tn by 2030, due to market forces, technology, and regulation, which are consistently moving financial activity to where it can be done more efficiently.”

The asset manager added that ongoing expansion of private credit’s addressable markets reinforces its staying power and pointed out that past periods of market volatility have provided opportunities for private credit to serve as a stabilising source of financing for a wide range of borrowers in a variety of market conditions.

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“In our view, banks’ increased focus on bolstering their ability to offer a private credit solution (whether directly or via partnerships) provides further confirmation of private credit’s staying power as a viable funding option for a wide range of companies, in a variety of market conditions,” BlackRock added.

“We expect this will drive additional expansion of private credit’s addressable market and see high-level benefits across banks (client retention, product capabilities), private credit lenders (origination, market expansion), and the financial system (broadening customised and efficient financing access for a range of borrowers).”

Elsewhere in the quarterly outlook, BlackRock predicted “challenging” growth in the US, due to the impact of inflation and trade policies.

In the liquid credit market, BlackRock continues to prioritise income, and expects some additional spread widening.

https://alternativecreditinvestor.com/2025/04/07/blackrock-predicts-private-credit-aum-will-reach-4-5tn-by-2030/