Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) has a lot riding on a successful Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) IPO and a strong start in public company life, perhaps more than SpaceX investors realized before the prospectus dropped.
Anthropic’s prospectus, released Monday, provides a more complete view of the SpaceXAI relationship than the original May agreement outlined in SpaceX’s own S-1 earlier this year.
The filing describes agreements entered into and amended between May and October 2026, with maximum compute spending of $120.5 billion over terms extending into 2029. Aggregate monthly fees reach approximately $3.1 billion once all capacity is delivered, which is expected in December. Fees differ during the ramp period.
The original SpaceX disclosure was $1.25 billion a month for approximately 325,000 GPUs from AI chip darling Nvidia (NVDA).
The new monthly figure is almost 2.5 times the original rate, EvercoreISI analyst Kutgun Maral points out.
At the full run rate, $3.1 billion a month would make Anthropic a larger share of SpaceX’s revenue than previously expected, Maral calculates:
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$9.3 billion a quarter, or about 25% to 28% of SpaceX’s $33 billion to $37 billion revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2027; or
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$37.2 billion annualized, or about 37% of the $100 billion annual recurring revenue target for December 2026.
“We do not see it as a near-term revenue risk given Anthropic’s compute constraints and $131.7 billion of liquidity, but it does raise the question of how dependent SpaceX is on a single tenant,” Maral added.
Anthropic will need all the compute it can get, given its top-line growth rate and the strong valuation it’s seeking in public markets.
Anthropic’s first-half 2026 revenue surged to $16.3 billion from $1.1 billion a year earlier, the prospectus shows. The filing also discloses an $80.7 billion first-half net loss, a strong signal of aggressive AI spending in the years ahead.
Investment bankers are reportedly aiming for an astronomical listing valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.
Anthropic could debut on public markets before the end of November.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/elon-musks-spacex-clearly-has-a-lot-riding-on-the-success-of-anthropic-probably-much-to-the-surprise-of-investors-095719830.html?shem=aimgspe,
