We introduce the Morgan Stanley Global Humanoid Model,
projecting 1bn humanoids and $5tn in revenues by 2050. The
implications for global manufacturing, supply chain and
geopolitics are under appreciated. Who will challenge China’s
dominance? And when will the robots march into your
portfolio?
This note is included as part of our recent Humanoid Robotics Insight led by our
China Industrials team: Humanoids: A $5 Trillion Global Market
Introducing Morgan Stanley’s Global Humanoid TAM model- Estimating 1 billion
humanoids and $5 trillion in annual revenue by 2050. This expands upon our
previously published US and China TAM models, introducing assumptions for rest-
of-world and household humanoids, and leveraging the updated cost and
technological analysis led by our China Industrials Team. For a copy of the Global
Humanoid Model, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley representative.
Over the long term, we project the market for humanoid robots to be materially
larger than the global auto industry. Our estimate for $4.7 trillion in global
humanoid sales by 2050 is nearly double the aggregate revenues of the 20 largest
global auto OEMs in 2024, a figure that could very well shrink over the next 25
years. Note that this estimate only accounts for final equipment sales. When
incorporating supply chains and repair, maintenance, and support networks, the
market, and the gap to legacy manufacturing industries, could potentially be much
larger.
Implications for legacy manufacturing. In a world where legacy manufacturing is in
secular decline, we would expect a number of new entrants, both startups and
established players, to support the rise of the autonomous industrial complex
(humanoids, drones, AV’s, etc.). In China, a number of legacy auto OEMs and
suppliers are now investing in new capacity to diversify into humanoid robots (See
Exhibit 4 ). Could we see a similar trend in the US? In our view – Yes. We note that
our OW rating on Tesla and $410 price target ($800 bull case, $200 bear case) is
underpinned by our belief that Tesla’s capabilities in key areas of physical AI (AVs,
humanoids and other form factors) including data, robotics, energy storage,
compute, manufacturing and space, comms, networking, and infrastructure offer
growth and margin opportunities that greatly exceed those of the traditional EV
business which is under pressure.
Man meets machine – humanoids are an economy-changing technology,
challenging conventional definitions of economic productivity and potentially re-
ordering the global geopolitical order. Based on research conducted by our China
humanoid team (led by Sheng Zhong) it is becoming quite clear that China is in a
uniquely powerful position with respect to the development and propagation of AI-
enabled humanoid robots. While it is far too soon to declare an end-state ‘champion’
in the race for agentic humanoid robot supremacy, if the United States wants to
remain competitive in this critical area of applied AI we believe significant changes in
manufacturing capability, education and national policies would need to occur.
Robots, take your places. Let the games begin.
For more of our insights on the broader embodied AI theme, please check out our
explainer video.
Exhibit 1: Estimated Global Humanoid Revenue by Year
0
3
4
6
11
24
24
67
84
97
117
211
280
459
638
886
1,216
1,622
1,994
2,418
2,750
3,172
3,510
4,001
4,254
4,621
4,703
–
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2024
2025e
2026e
2027e
2028e
2029e
2030e
2031e
2032e
2033e
2034e
2035e
2036e
2037e
2038e
2039e
2040e
2041e
2042e
2043e
2044e
2045e
2046e
2047e
2048e
2049e
2050e
Global Humanoid Stock (k’s)
Annual Humanoid Revenue ($bn)
USA China
Low Income Countries Lower Middle Income Countries
Upper Middle Income Countries (Ex-China) High Income Countries (Ex-USA)
Global Humanoid Stock (k’s)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Exhibit 2: Key Adoption Estimates
Classification 2036 2040 2044 2050
Low Income 246 1,099 3,901 14,006
Lower Middle Income 3,745 16,248 57,553 204,498
Upper Middle Income 12,330 77,327 243,338 504,307
High Income 7,363 39,714 123,249 296,427
North America 2,159 11,512 35,816 86,866
East Asia & Pacific 11,463 74,886 231,596 439,936
South Asia 2,258 9,797 34,705 122,733
Sub-Saharan Africa 1,137 4,967 17,617 62,938
Europe & Central Asia 3,902 20,617 64,798 163,370
Middle East & North Africa 861 4,146 13,871 42,532
Latin America & Caribbean 1,862 8,289 29,032 98,361
Not Classified 41 173 607 2,501
USA 1,934 10,289 32,017 77,703
China 8,593 61,047 185,532 302,316
Other 13,157 63,051 210,492 639,219
Commercial 22,066 127,714 407,418 935,052
Household 1,618 6,673 20,623 84,185
Global 23,684 134,387 428,041 1,019,238
Cumulative Adoptions (k’s)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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Exhibit 3: MS Global Humanoid Market Estimates vs. 2024 Aggregate Revenue
of the 20 Largest Automotive OEMs
1,216
4,703
2,488
–
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2040e Global Humanoid
Market
2050e Global Humanoid
Market
20 Largest Auto OEMs
(2024)
Revenue (Billions $)
Note: 20 largest auto OEMs includes: Volkswagen, Toyota, General Motors, Ford, Stellantis, Mercedes, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, BYD,
SAIC, Tesla, Nissan, Kia, Renault, Suzuki, Mazda, Geely, Subaru, and Tata.
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Exhibit 4: Selection of China-Based Auto Companies Involved in the Humanoid
Robot Value Chain
China-Based Auto Companies Involved in Humanoid Robotics (Public Only)
Company Ticker Analyst Primary Industry Primary Products Supplied to Robotics
BYD 1211.HK Tim Hsiao Autos In-House Robotics Team Working on Humanoids
BEST Precision 300580-CN NC Auto Parts Supply Screws
GAC Group 2238.HK Joey Xu Autos Developing ‘GoMate’ Humanoid
Great Wall Motor 2333.HK Tim Hsiao Autos Jointly Developing Robots with Unitree
Hota Industrial 1536-TW Tim Hsiao Auto Parts Supply Gears/Reducers
Leapmotor 9863.HK NC Autos In-House Robotics Team Working on Humanoids
RoboSense 2498-HK NC Auto Parts Supply Cameras, Motors, Lidar
Sanhua 002050-CN Shelley Wang Auto Parts Supply Thermal, Complete Actuators
Shanghai Beite 603009-CN NC Auto Parts Supply Screws
Shuanghuan Driveline 002472-CN Sheng Zhong Auto Parts Supply Gears/Reducers
Shuanglin 300100-CN NC Auto Parts Supply Bearings
Tuopu 601689-CN Shelley Wang Auto Parts Supply Thermal, Complete Actuators
Xiaomi 1810.HK Andy Meng Tech Hardware/Autos Developing ‘CyberOne’ Humanoid
XPENG XPEV Tim Hsiao Autos Developing ‘Iron’ Humanoid, May Invest up to $13.8bn (100bn Yuan)
Zhenyu 300953-CN NC Auto Parts Supply Screws
Note: Does not include companies solely testing humanoids in current operations. NC = Not Covered
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
Addressing Tariffs & Humanoids: Expecting near-term trade tensions to weigh on
US BoM costs, but with limited impact to long-term humanoid adoption. In the
short term, we expect US BoM costs to be materially higher with US robot
developers potentially swapping from Chinese to Japanese/Korean suppliers due to
lower tariff rates vs. sourcing from China. However, we think it is unlikely that tariffs
mute the outlook for long-term US humanoid adoption. While BoM costs may be
higher in the short-term, we do not project a major ramp-up in adoption until the
2030’s and 2040’s. In fact, we would argue that any new investment in US
manufacturing would heavily increase the need for humanoids and other advanced
robotics to mitigate the labor cost gap between the US and China/other low-cost
countries.
At this time, there appears to be very few existing US-based alternatives for
many of the humanoid screws, reducers, motors, batteries, etc. derived from
Asia. Nearly every robot developer claims to assemble their own actuators, but
these generally still require critical components that are largely sourced from China
& Asia. Additionally, TSLA CEO Elon Musk recently highlighted on the 1Q25 earnings
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call that the Chinese government is actively restricting permanent magnet exports
to the US, complicating the company’s development of actuators for Optimus and
forcing the engineering team to explore motor redesigns to limit the impact.
Although there may be a handful of US companies that could manufacture
components for domestic humanoid/actuator production, at this time, it appears to
be very difficult to entirely de-couple from China. We note that if Tesla, which has
extensive expertise in supply chain development and leveraging on-shored
manufacturing, is struggling with humanoid component sourcing, the situation for
the broader, largely startup-dominated US humanoid industry may be much more
drastic.
In the long-term, we would expect a gradual decline in domestic BoM costs if
tariffs lead to new investment in US supply/capacity that reduce global
component prices. We could also envision a scenario where China-based suppliers
build new capacity in the US to supply humanoid components similar to how US
auto suppliers operate in China. Building/investing in the US could allow Chinese
component suppliers to continue to supply US humanoids over the longer-term.
For clients hoping to play the theme, we present ‘The Humanoid 100’, Morgan
Stanley’s list of public companies currently involved in or otherwise materially
exposed to the humanoid market. The “Humanoid 100” is Morgan Stanley’s global
mapping of equities across a range of sectors and regions that may have an
important role in bringing robots to reality. As of 4/25/2025, the Humanoid 100 is
up 4.5% YTD on an equal-weighted basis, still outperforming S&P 500 by 10.5 ppt.
Of note, 7 of the top 10 performers are China-based, most of them “body”
(component) companies rallying on hope that government support, new
investments, and demand from legacy manufacturing (autos, aerospace, etc.) will
lead to material humanoid-related revenues over the coming years. For a copy of the
underlying Humanoid 100 database, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley
representative.
Exhibit 5: The Humanoid 100- Morgan Stanley’s List of Global Humanoid
Enablers
Brain Integrators
Foundational Models Data Science & Analytics Simulation & Vision Software Semis (Vision & Compute) Semis (Memory) Semis (Designers) Semis (Fab)
Body
Sensors Batteries Semis (Analog) Body, Wiring, Thermal Diversified Automation
Bearings Complete Actuators Radar & Lidar Aluminum Castings
Wires & Connectors
Screws Magnetic
Motors
Force & Torque
Thermal
Gears / Reducers Cameras & Vision Sensors
Encoders
Rare-Earths / Magnets
Actuators & Actuator Parts
Note: Public companies only. Not all inclusive.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
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Exhibit 6: Humanoid 100 Top and Bottom YTD Performers and equal-weighted
Performance vs. S&P 500. Note that 7/10 top performers are from China.
Top 10 YTD Performers
Rank Company Ticker Country Performance
1 Shuanglin 300100-CN China +184%
2 Zhongda Leader 002896-CN China +132%
3 Rainbow Robotics 277810-KR Korea +75%
4 Zhaowei 003021-CN China +72%
5 XPENG XPEV-US China +70%
6 JL Mag 6680-HK China +68%
7 Horizon Robotics 9660-HK China +61%
8 MP Materials MP-US USA +56%
9 Palantir PLTR-US USA +49%
10 UBTech 9880-HK China +48%
Bottom 10 YTD Performers
Rank Company Ticker Country Performance
1 Hiwin Technologies 2049-TW Taiwan (39%)
2 Teradyne TER-US USA (39%)
3 Onsemi ON-US USA (37%)
4 Ambarella AMBA-US USA (35%)
5 Regal Rexnord RRX USA (31%)
6 Tesla TSLA-US USA (29%)
7 Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) 2317-TW Taiwan (24%)
8 Mobileye MBLY-US USA (24%)
9 Nabtesco 6268-JP Japan (24%)
10 Sensata ST-US USA (22%)
Humanoid 100 (Average) +4.5%
S&P 500 (6.1%)
Note: Data as of 4/25/2025 close.
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research
For Further Reading:
• Humanoids: A $5 Trillion Global Market
• Humanoids: The Humanoid 100: Mapping the Humanoid Robot Value Chain
(6 Feb 2025)
• Artificial Intelligence: Humanoids: Investment Implications of Embodied AI
(June 26, 2024)
• Video: The Robots Are Coming: Investment Implications of Embodied AI (13
Apr 2025)
• Humanoids: Humanoid Horizons: Big Tech Flexes its Robot Muscle, Humanoid
100 +20% YTD (25 Feb 2025)
• Humanoids: Humanoid Horizons: Progress in Acceleration (21 Mar 2025)
• Tesla Inc: TSLA, Washington and the ‘MAC’ (8 Apr 2025)
• General Motors Company: US Manufacturing and the Apollo Spirit (7 Apr
2025)
• China Industrials: Trip Takeaways: Humanoid Robotics (23 Feb 2025)
• Tesla Inc: DeepSeek and TSLA: Precursor to a Humanoid ‘Sputnik’ Moment?
(27 Jan 2025)
• Tesla Inc: Baby Tarzan, Empty Skies: 6 Musings on Tesla (26 Mar 2025)
• Embodied AI: Humanoid Disruptors: Apptronik (March 24, 2025)
• Embodied AI: Humanoid Disruptors: 1X Technologies (7 Apr 2025)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/17h9JYHdVO804TGR6da1UYN_7NA709gCb/view
