India GDP Live: India economy continued to grow despite the severe second wave of the covid-19 pandemic during the April-June quarter.
India’s economy grew by 20.1% during the April-June quarter of this financial year, as against a 24.4% contraction seen during the same period last year. The massive growth seen in the first quarter has made India the fastest-growing major economy across the globe. India’s GDP at constant prices (2011-12) in the first quarter stood at Rs 32.38 lakh crore, however still lower than the Rs 35.66 lakh crore seen in the first quarter of 2019-20, signalling that India is yet to emerge from the covid induced slump. The construction sector’s GVA was 68.3% higher than the previous year. The services sector grew at 3.7% from the year-ago period. In the previous quarter, India’s economy had grown by 1.6%. For the full financial year 2020-21, India’s GDP contracted by 7.3%.
The central government’s finances performed better during the first four months (April-July) of the current fiscal compared with the year-ago period. Robust revenue mobilisation on the back of buoyant tax and non-tax collections coupled with re-prioritisation of revenue expenditure has kept fiscal deficit in check at 21.3% of the full-year target. The better fiscal numbers in FY22 compared with FY21 are on the expected lines due to the less stringent lockdown and better preparedness this year in terms of pandemic-response. The recovery from the second wave has been faster as evident from the recent economic data. Various high frequency indicators have been regaining traction since June 2021 which has bode well for the government finances. The Centre has already raised nearly 34.6% of its budgeted full-year receipts by the July end which is 193.4% higher than the total amount mobilised in the corresponding period last year. Whereas the expenditure rationalisation resulted in marginal decline (-14.7%) in total expenditure against the last year’s level, prompting a lower fiscal deficit so far.
~ Care Ratings
Public Administration, Defence & Other Services GVA grew at 5.8% in the April-June quarter as compared to a contraction of 10.2% last year.
“With double-digit growth in Q1FY22, the strong recovery can surely be deemed as nothing less than outstanding despite a low base. This GDP reading clearly testifies the resilience of the Indian Economy vs its global counterparts and reinforces the strong fundamentals of the country. The Indian economy has seen a sharp rebound from the onslaught of the Covid-19 pandemic, supported by high government spending, reform measures, monetary policy support, progressive unlocking along with the mega vaccination drive. Based on the estimates, there has been an improvement in the construction sector growth YoY given the economic activities were at a standstill last year. With various reforms and RBI’s resolve to support the financial markets and economy, the Indian economy is well poised to ride the long term structural growth path,” said Ram Raheja – Director, S Raheja Realty.
MNREGA work requirement has declined in August, as indicated by CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian. He added that power consumption is indicating strong recovery as well.
India has seen a V-shaped recovery as we predicted last year, said Chief Economic Advisor, Krishnamurthy Subramanian
Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services GVA grew 3.7% in the April-June quarter, against a 5% contraction from last year.
“The better-than-expected GDP numbers are room for optimism, especially the growth in the construction sector augur well for the economy. It should result in an increase in credit offtake. There could be some inflationary pressures in the short term. We also see a good pickup in industrial activity across all our clients from varied sectors and remain optimistic on a continuing upswing in the economy. It will be interesting to watch how the Central Bank now looks at the interest rates in its next review, and if tapering is likely to happen even in India,” said D.R.E Reddy, CEO and Managing Partner, CRCL LLP.
GDP at Current Prices in the year Q1 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 51.23 lakh crore, as against Rs 38.89 lakh crore in Q1 2020-21, showing a growth of 31.7% as compared to contraction of 22.3% in Q1 2020-21.
India’s economy grew at record-breaking levels in the April-June quarter but was shy of RBI’s projection of 21.4%.
Manufacturing Gross Value Added for the first quarter rose 49.6% against a contraction of 36% in the year-ago period.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure came in at Rs 17.83 lakh crore in the first quarter of this fiscal year, up from the year ago period but still lower than the 2019-20 levels.
GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 of 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 32.38 lakh crore, as against Rs 26.95 lakh crore in Q1 of 2020-21, showing a growth of 20.1 percent as compared to contraction of 24.4 percent in Q1 2020-21.
The construction sector posted the strongest growth during the April-June quarter. The construction sector grew at 68.3% against a contraction of 45% in the year ago period.
India’s economy grew by 20.1% in the first quarter of the current financial year. The sharp jump in GDP is aided by the low base effect. India’s GDP contracted 24.4% in the year-ago period.
The second wave has adversely impacted the construction sector as well, though the disruption seems to be much less than last year. The massive migration of construction workers in the wake of the prolonged lockdown last year completely disrupted the sector, and the contraction in the sector was 49.5%. However, the outmigration during the second wave has been much less and mostly localised. Although the second wave has disrupted the sector, the impact is likely to be much less than last year.
~ Brickwork Ratings
In our view, the Q2 CY22 data will show a clash of two contrasting themes. Although sequential momentum slowed due to COVID outbreak, the robust performance of India’s tradables sector and a much smaller-than-expected decline in services activity should support much faster GDP growth than we previously expected.
~ Barclays
Electricity generation (weight: 19.85 per cent in core sector) increased by 9.0% in July 2021 over July 2020. Its cumulative index increased by 14.6% from April to July 2021-22 over the corresponding period of previous year.
The final growth rate of the Index of Eight Core Industries for April 2021 has been revised to 62.6%from its provisional level 56.1%. The growth rate of core sector during April-July 2021-22 was 21.2% (P) as compared to the corresponding period of last FY.
The final growth rate of the Index of Eight Core Industries for April 2021 has been revised to 62.6%from its provisional level 56.1%. The growth rate of core sector during April-July 2021-22 was 21.2% (P) as compared to the corresponding period of last FY.
Petroleum Refinery production (weight: 28.04 per cent) increased by 6.7 per cent in July 2021 over July 2020. Its cumulative index increased by 13.1 per cent between April and July, 2021-22 over the corresponding period of previous year.
The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stood at 134.0 in July 2021, which increased by 9.4 per cent (provisional) as compared to the Index of July 2020. The production of Coal, Natural Gas, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement and Electricity industries increased in July 2021 over the corresponding period of last year.
India’s Fiscal Deficit came in at 21.3% of Rs 15.07 lakh crore, the fiscal year 2021-22 target.
Sensex and Nifty soared once again on Tuesday to hit all-time highs. Domestic markets have surged significantly in the first two trading sessions of this week.
Barclays expects the construction sector to post the strongest numbers in the April-June quarterly figures. “Steel and cement demand remains robust, despite the onset of the monsoon season; construction remains a focus of several government programs,” they said.
The economy was well under-recovery from the devastation caused by the first wave of the pandemic until the second wave hit the economy, starting April 2021, bringing the recovery process to an abrupt halt.
We expect GDP growth for Q1FY22 at 14% (year-on-year), largely due to a low base in Q1FY21. The subsequent quarters will see an improvement if there is no resurgence of the virus in the form of a third wave. Although many states have started easing the lockdown restrictions recently, economic activities have not resumed completely to their pre-Covid levels.
~ Brickwork Ratings
Higher growth in the second quarter of 2022, or Q1 FY22 is mainly on account of low base. Almost all the countries have registered double-digit (or near to double-digit) real GDP growth. The average real GDP growth for 17 economies has improved from –0.1% in Q1 2022 to 12.2% in Q2 2022.
~ SBI Ecowrap
Domestic stock markets soared to all-time highs on Tuesday ahead of the quarterly GDP figures. Sensex and Nifty closed at their highest levels ever today.
India’s economy is expected to have grown in double digits during the April-June quarter of this financial year, helped by a low base of the previous year. The expected rebound in economic growth would also stand testament to the strong consumer activity, unfazed by the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic. A recent poll of 41 economists conducted by news agency Reuters indicated that the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 20 per cent in the June quarter, compared to the record contraction of 24.4% in the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee expects June quarter GDP growth to be at 21.4%.
https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/india-gdp-live-q1-fy-2021-22-india-economic-growth-report-card-lockdown-goods-services-agriculture-manufacturing/2321154/
High-frequency indicators such as the Google mobility indicator shows activity has picked up, even grocery activity has picked up to pre-covid levels, said Chief Economic Advisor, Krishnamurthy Subramanian