2047 A.D. will be a landmark year in the Indian calendar. India would be completing 100 years since attaining independence from the British regime
2047 A.D. will be a landmark year in the Indian calendar. India would be completing 100 years since attaining independence from the British regime. First 25 years post-independence were both traumatic as well as formative years for India. India was known as the land of ‘Snake Charmers’. A non-aligned nation by choice, India was forced to fight four wars in quick succession, 1948, 1962, 1965 and 1971.
At international for a India had insignificant to ‘not so significant’ standing. Geographical proximity with Russia did help. Russia used VETO power in UNSC against western powers’ proposals on Goa and J&K (UNSC resolution 99 and 100 refer). Hungry mouths of millions of Indians were being fed by US grains donated under the PL 480 programme.
Turning point (read opportunity) came from an unexpected quarter. 1971 elections in Pakistan threw up most unexpected results. The Awami League of Sheikh Mujib had won the majority.
‘Punjabis’ governed Pakistan refused to accept the verdict. Seeds for creation of a new nation were sown. Brutal assault by Pak military in erstwhile East Pakistan led to huge refugee influx in India. Mrs Indira Gandhi, the then PM, led India to accomplish a historical first after second world war. India Military crushed Pak offensive in the west and ‘annexed’ East Pakistan and created a new nation, Bangla Desh.
2022 and 1971 are a mere nano second apart in the celestial calendar. But the Globe has changed exponentially when viewed with a geo-strategic telescope. Breakup of the Soviet Union was, perhaps, the most unexpected event in the last 50 years. Super power rivalry came to an end with the USA emerging as an uncontested super power. China’s multi dimensional growth during the same period, Chinese economy in particular, has challenged the numero uno position of the USA.
Nuclear Deterrence as an Instrument of Power and Peace
Ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which ought not to have taken place has brought into focus the need for possession of a formidable DETERRENT. Ukraine willingly surrendered its NUKES after the breakup of the Soviet Union to gain spotlight for a few milliseconds and in the process placed its future in inky blue darkness of military blackmail by its neighbour, Russia. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the clock cannot be turned back. A ‘nuclear’ Ukraine could not have been subjected to such humiliation. Nuclear Deterrent, therefore, has become currency of not only power but peace as well.
India may have faced similar conundrum but for the exemplary foresight demonstrated by Indira Gandhi as Prime Minister, who gave green signal to Indian nuclear scientists to go ‘NUCLEAR’. It had repercussions in form of condemnation in international fora, sanctions and more importantly birth of a ‘Nuclear Pakistan’.
‘Buddha’ smiled again under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee as Prime Minister, nearly a quarter century later. India had emerged as a nuclear power. Nuclear deterrent possessed by India ensured that both China and Pakistan individually as well as in sync did not try any major military misadventure during the past 50 years. Instability on both borders will continue to remain.
Highly location centric conflicts viz Kargil with Pakistan and Galwan Valley with China did take place. Border situation with both nations remains volatile and is unlikely to change in the near future. But one thing is certain. Full scale military campaign is out of the question due to nukes in possession of all three nations. Concept of ‘Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)’, which was coined during the height of the Cold War has actually become the propagator of maintaining peace by default.
Weaponized Space as New Frontier
But Nuclear Deterrence as an instrument of maintaining peace may not survive in coming decades in view of control of space becoming the next frontier of establishing supremacy. Supremacy in space requires three main capabilities. These are;
*Reliable Launch Vehicle.
*Satellite Fabrication Technology.
*Satellite Neutralisation Capability.
India’s Space Research Organisation (ISRO), a shining jewel of world class high technology establishment, has placed India on near equal footing with China and USA. However, India cannot match either nation in the field of launch vehicle capability, both in terms of tonnage as well as frequency of launch. China and the USA are in space. We are yet to launch an Indian in space in an Indian launch vehicle. Establishing a permanent space station by India is still quite some distance away but highly probable and possible but for lack of resources.
India has lost the conventional weapon development race by a few decades in trying to play ‘catch up’, which is never a winning proposition. India is unlikely to produce any ‘big ticket’ platform viz Force Multipliers, Heavy Lift Fixed and Rotary wing machines, Strike Aircraft, Armoured Vehicles, Nuclear Submarines, PGMs and so on. List is endless. Total absence and lack of R&D investments in the past six decades has resulted in India becoming one of the largest importers of Military hardware. ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ is a nice slogan. Hamari ‘KATHNI aur KARNI’ mein bahut fark hai.
Before long China may rather demonstrate weaponization of its space station. As and when it happens, the entire constellation of satellites of all nations will become vulnerable. China may exercise both options; Soft as well as Hard Kill.
A word about current space stations would be essential.
*ISS, the US-controlled space station, is a consortium owned space station. ISS is due to retire in 2030.
*Chinese Tiangong is exclusively a Chinese effort. Tianhe Core module of Tiangong will be supplemented by two additional modules Wentian in July and Mengtian in October, 2022
*The Chinese space station is unique. It has a co-orbital companion in the form of the Hubble class Xuntian space telescope but with a 300 times larger field of view.
*Co-orbital capability can be easily transformed into weapon carrying platform as and when needed.
Need for Anti Satellite Weapons Capability
In 2022 and beyond can we imagine surviving without satellite communication? A nation having a formidable ANTI SATELLITE WEAPON CAPABILITY (ASATWC) can and will blackmail the ‘have nots’ as has been the case with nukes.
US announcement of observing moratorium on deployment and future development of ASATWC is yet another fine example of US hypocrisy. It is merely a case of repetitive US profligacy. The US developed and used nukes and then preached to the rest of the world about the dangers of nuclear weapons. It is doing the same in the case of ASAT weapons.
On 18th April, 2022 Vice President of USA, Ms Kamala Harris was extremely magnanimous in announcing US decision to stop testing ASAT weapons to contain space debris
Currently Direct Attack-Anti satellite (DA-ASAT) capability has been demonstrated by China, India, Russia and USA. Record of tests carried out by these nations is as follows;
*China — January, 2007.
*India — March, 2019.
*Russia — 15th November, 2021. Destroyed a satellite in LEO about 500 km from earth.
*USA — February, 2008. The USA carried out the test on the pretext of destroying a ‘rogue’ satellite containing Toxic Fuels. Essentially the test was carried out to validate the SM-3 interceptor.
India’s Space Doctrine
India is yet to formally announce its space doctrine. However, ISRO has published first-ever assessment of space situational awareness capability and more importantly application of such capability in 2021. ISRO also highlighted the need to track space debris.
Doctrinal approach to enunciate India’s space doctrine would/should encompass the following
aspects;
*Development of offensive capability in space.
*Ability to neutralize adversary satellites in LEO.
*Development of ‘soft kill’ capability of adversary satellites.
*Development of weaponised orbital platforms.
Unlike our nuclear doctrine, which is still coloured by western thoughts of NO FIRST USE, our space doctrine must not be constrained by US hypocrisy of restraining further DA-ASAT destructive testing of satellites.
International Stance
Space debris threat to existing space stations and functional satellites (specially in LEO) has attracted attention of world powers. The United Nations is scheduled to discuss ‘SPACE SECURITY’ by forming an open ended group. This group is expected to submit its recommendations, which might lead to formulating multilateral legally binding measures nearly akin to Nuclear non- proliferation Treaty. India is not a signatory to NPT. Likewise India must not sign any future treaty on management/control/utilization of space for peaceful purposes and ban on testing/developing Anti Satellite Weapons.
World is likely to witness global realignment of military alliance NATO after the Russia-Ukraine war comes to an end. France and Germany are unlikely to continue to live with unwritten hegemony of the USA. Energy security of EU nations will govern their relations with Russia in the long term.
DA-ASAT Weapon; The New Deterrent
India must not make the same mistake as it did in developing nukes. China exploded its first nuclear device in 1964. We took 10 more years, primarily because of political infirmity. India of
2022 is different. India’s demonstrated stand of maintaining and practicing unilateral pro-active neutrality in respect of ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has placed India as the numero uno ‘NON ALIGNED’ nation of the globe.
Many military strategists propagated the paradox that in 21st century ‘soft power’ will replace the offensive weapon power. However, the concept ‘soft power’ as an instrument of control and deterrence has already proved to be a non-starter. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a near-perfect example of the same.
Ineffectiveness of ‘soft power’ viz financial and trade sanctions in the short term is of no consequence as is quite evident from the effect of sanctions imposed on Russia by the west. EU nations are still buying oil and gas from Russia and are facing the heat due to sanctions imposed on Russia.
The advent of satellite warfare is knocking at the doors. Fortunately India is extremely well placed to be among the front runners in this race unlike conventional weapons race, which India lost by more than few decades. ISRO is already planning a possible mission to Venus, manned and unmanned Gaganyan, another attempt at soft landing on the moon, development of heavier load launch vehicle and so on. These developments would also enhance India’s ICBM capability.
Concept of an unmanned space station, which can be weaponized as and when required, would probably be an ideal answer to ISS and Tiangong. Possible weaponry could include DA-ASAT as well as a Laser weapon.
India’s National Security Imperatives
India’s national security imperatives have a different dimension altogether because India is not part of any military alliance, at least as yet. Future of QUAD is at best uncertain.
India must not stop development of DA-ASAT weapons capability. Few more trials would be required to prove the reliability. Fake concerns of world powers should be ignored. Recent events have proved that the biggest ‘ROGUE NATIONS’ on the globe are P-5 nations. No less than the current head of the UN has hinted the same. All P-5 nations continue to abuse the privilege of
‘VETO’ to suit their needs. India’s quest for a seat in UNSC has become irrelevant.
China will continue to pose major challenges to India’s security but not by conventional weapons route. China’s expansion of ICBM Silos from ZERO (two years back) to 360 (as in April, 2022) is the most significant development India must take note of.
To beat China at its own game, India must adopt a highly proactive stance of development of DA- ASAT weapons and formidable and reliable satellite launch and fabrication capability.
Self proclaimed military strategists of India would do well to move over from ‘CDS and THEATRE COMMAND’ conundrum to looking beyond, 25 years from now and advise/influence the powers that be to make a choice.
Without Nuclear and DA-ASAT weapons capability India will not achieve leadership role in international affairs.
https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/indias-strategic-status-2047-ad-asat-power/2517524/
