‘Nearly 40 million phones to be 5G-enabled by year-end’

The sale of 5G smartphones comes with Indian telecom operators – Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea – still conducting trials of various 5G use cases in the country. They have recently sought a year’s extension to conduct 5G trials, as the…

Telecom market trackers say 37-40 million mobile phone users in India will be on smartphones supporting 5G technology by the end of this year, 10 times higher than in 2020, despite the fact that there is no visibility on the rollout of the next-generation networks in the country.

In fact, 5G smartphone sales are expected to cross 30% by volume and 50% by value in the festive season, amidst a huge brand push and with consumers looking to future-proof buys. “5G-installed base is expected to be around 40 million by 2021-exit. 5G shipments will grow 10x in 2021 over 2020,” Navkender Singh, research director at IDC, told ET.

“Growth is driven totally by supply,” he said, adding that handset brands are bringing 5G phones for differentiation and marketing purposes. “Also, China has helped a lot in getting the ecosystem moved to 5G. So, China-based brands are able to bring 5G phones at affordable mid-range.” Counterpoint Research estimates that India’s 5G smartphone installed base will cross 35 million by the end of 2021, from over 17 million in August.
Analysts added that 5G is going to be a preferred specification for the October-December quarter sales of smartphones as people are buying expensive smartphones of higher average selling prices. “Consumers will want their investment to be future-proof. At the same time, the industry has also complemented very well in terms of making 5G smartphones available across price points,” said Faisal Kawoosa, founder and chief analyst at TechArc.

The sale of 5G smartphones comes with Indian telecom operators – Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea – still conducting trials of various 5G use cases in the country. They have recently sought a year’s extension to conduct 5G trials, as their permits draw to an end on November 26, industry executives said.

If the telecom department agrees to this, it would push the auction of 5G spectrum to the second half of 2022 and service rollouts at least six months later.

As per TechArc estimates, 5G smartphone sales for 2021 are likely to be 28.3 million units, out of which 12.7 million are expected to be sold during the festive quarter – October to December – alone.

Prachir Singh, analyst at Counterpoint Research, added that 5G smartphone sales will cross 50% by value of the total smartphone market in 2021 festive season and 30% by volume. “We are seeing the majority of the smartphones in ₹20,000 and above price bands being 5G. There is a dominant penetration of 5G in this segment,” he added.

Since July 2021, 26 smartphones launched were 5G-enabled. These smartphones are cumulatively expanding into 53 variants with different configurations of RAM-ROM, as per TechArc analysis. “Primarily, these are the 5G smartphones up for sale in Q4,” Kawoosa said.

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