It’s time to stop doubting quantum information technology.
Are we there yet? No. Not by a long shot. But the progress on a number of key challenges, the sheer number of organizations fighting to succeed (and make a buck), the no-turning-back public investment, and nasty international rivalry are all good guarantors.
It feels like quantum computing is turning an important corner, maybe not the corner leading to the home stretch, but likely the corner beyond the turning back point. We now have quantum computers able to perform tasks beyond the reach of classical systems. Google’s latest break-through benchmark demonstrated that. These aren’t error corrected machines yet, but progress in error correction is one of 2024’s highlights.
Quantum pioneer John Preskill recently suggested we change our mindset and language and stop talking about NISQ (noisy intermediate scale quantum) versus FASQ (fault-tolerant application scale quantum) systems and start talking about Mega/Gigaquop (million/billion quantum operations) systems – basically systems able to do some levels of productive “work.”
That feels right. We’re rapidly developing the features (hardware and software) that will make Mega/Gigaquop possible. We’re entering the next phase of quantum computing development. Not the end game but a significant change, let’s call it the middle game, where winning hardware and software strategies will emerge and lesser ones will fade.
This year, HPCwire published roughly 90 feature article on quantum computing writ large. Last year we published roughly 80. What just a few years ago was a small fraction of HPCwire’s coverage has grown steadily. Today, AI, traditional HPC, and quantum makeup the bulk of our coverage.
But back to quantum computing — it’s happening, and maybe sooner than many expect. Here are six key trends and nine notables worth watching in 2025.
Let’s get started.
1. Great Strides in Error Correction
Last year, led by Google’s breaking of the QEC Threshold on Google’s new chip (Willow), there was a impressive wave of quantum error correction advances. More efficient surface codes. Improved alternate approaches (Cat Qubits). Impressive collaborations such as Microsoft and Quantinuuum’s development of qubit virtualization technique using quantum and classical resources.
Physics World, the membership magazine of the Institute of Physics (U.K.), one of the largest physical societies in the world, selected Quantum Error Correction as its breakthrough of the year with two groups sharing the honor: 1) Google for Willow and breaking the QEC Threshold barrier and 2) MIT, Harvard, and QuEra for work demonstrating quantum error correction on an atomic processor with 48 logical qubits.
Physics World wrote, “Errors caused by interactions with the environment – noise – are the Achilles heel of every quantum computer, and correcting them has been called a “defining challenge” for the technology. These two teams, working with very different quantum systems, took significant steps towards overcoming this challenge. In doing so, they made it far more likely that quantum computers will become practical problem-solving machines, not just noisy, intermediate-scale tools for scientific research.”
It seems every possible QEC avenue is being explored with progress on many fronts. (Google slide is below)
Not only is attention being paid to QEC structures but it’s also being focused on QEC decoder capabilities. Error decoding is done by co-located classical systems. Google’s error decoder (classical) takes about 63 microseconds to perform and another ten second to be transmitted by ethernet*. “Not bad,” said John Preskill, recently, but it will need to improve as the code grows in size.
“Riverlane and Rigetti have demonstrated in small experiments that the decoding latency can be reduced by running the decoding algorithm on FPGAs rather than CPUs, and by integrating the decoder into the control stack to reduce communication time. Adopting such methods may become increasingly important as we scale further,” said Preskill. “Google DeepMind has shown that a decoder trained by reinforcement learning can achieve a lower logical error rate than a decoder constructed by humans, but it’s unclear whether that will work at scale because the cost of training rises steeply with code distance. Also, the Harvard / QuEra team has emphasized that performing correlated decoding across multiple code blocks can reduce the depth of fault-tolerant constructions, but this also increases the complexity of decoding, raising concern about whether such a scheme will be scalable.”
The industry goal, or thereabouts, is to create a physical million-qubit systems with on the order of 100 reliable qubits able to run circuit depths of 10,000. While most observers think it will still be a decade to get there, some (me) think the time-line may shrink. There are just so many people working on the problem, producing results, and building on each other’s work.
Related links
Google Debuts New Quantum Chip, Error Correction Breakthrough, and Roadmap Details
Physics World 2024 Breakthroughs
Cat Qubit Pioneer Alice & Bob Issues Roadmap
Quantinuum, CU Succeed Implementing Nonlocal qLDPC Code
Harvard-Led Research Achieves New Milestone in Error-Corrected Quantum Computing
2. The Rise of Regional Hot Spots
Call it Silicon Valley-itis (SVI). At least a dozen (or more) cities and municipalities around the world are scrambling become hotspots for quantum development and commerce. The memory of Silicon Valley’s ride to riches while driving the electronics revolution has folks salivating.
Think that’s an exaggeration? Here are just a few of the regional efforts in the U.S.: Illinois (Chicago Quantum Exchange), Colorado (Elevate Quantum), Tennessee (Chattanooga Quantum Collaborative), Maryland (The Quantum Stater), Connecticut (QuantumCT), Massachusetts (Quantum Complex). No doubt there are more. Many are being designated TechHubs as part of the U.S. Commerce program.
It’s a similar story in Europe. In Germany, there’s a well-established effort called the Munich Quantum Valley that can rival pretty much any other regional effort. Just last month Hamburg jumped into the fray with a new consortium touting the Hamburg Full Stack Initiative. SVI efforts are springing up around the globe. There are, of course, many national efforts around the world.
They all see riches and influence flowing from the expected quantum technology revolution. They are crafting a mix of tax breaks, land-use provisions, government funding, academic center affiliations, and government lab associations as enticements. Close collaboration with industry is generally a de rigueur element.
Aspirations are sky high as shown here by the U.S.-based Elevate Quantum effort:
- Elevate Quantum (a multi-western state effort – Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming) says it will deliver 15,000 jobs, $2 billion in funding for startups, and $150 million in revenue by 2030. It’s website says: “The consortium of 120 organizations works to ensure that the region remains the global epicenter for Quantum by helping turn cutting-edge research into world-changing companies, facilitating a vibrant startup and scale-up ecosystem and building a diverse and inclusive workforce.”
- Elevate Quantum’s stated mission is simple: “Secure the Mountain West’s position as the global epicenter for QIT development and enhance U.S. economic and national security.”
Currently, the Chicago Quantum Exchange/Illinois effort and the Munich Quantum Valley efforts seem the most advanced and are tackling the widest scope of quantum activities.
Illinois is building Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park (IQMP), a multibillion-dollar quantum campus on Chicago’s southeast side. It will include the multimillion-dollar Illinois-DARPA Quantum Proving Ground and be anchored by PsiQuantum. Last month IBM announced plans to establish a National Quantum Algorithm Center at IQMP and locate one of its Quantum Systems Two there. The Chicago Quantum Exchange, which has been around since 2017, boasts core members such as the University of Chicago, Fermi National Laboratories, and Argonne National Lab.
In Germany, the Munich Quantum Valley effort is also steamrolling along. At SC24, at a roundtable on integrating quantum computing with HPC, Laura Shultz, head of quantum at LRZ, a core Munich Quantum Valley noted:
“We currently have four quantum systems that are installed in our facility, three superconducting and one ion trap. Our mission is not only to install these systems, to make them available for the users, but we’re also focused on making sure that multi modality type quantum systems can be integrated into the HPC workflow and operational system. We’ve been working on this now for about three years. This includes bringing up the systems, integrating them into the facility, and then also making sure that they are connected with a open source hybrid software stack that we call the Munich quantum software stack. So we’ve been working on this for a couple of years now, and envision for hybrid HPC use cases what we call tight integration.
“So we want to not just have systems, HPC systems, quantum systems, working separately over different different networks, different spaces, which is absolutely fine, we think, for some applications, but we want to really focus on very tightly-integrated, which means that we have it on the same network. We have it co-located on prem, we have these together, so that we’re really able to to reduce down the latency, maximize the communication and the computation between the two, and really treat these as accelerators to the overall HPC framework.”
That’s impressive work.
How serious these regional efforts are isn’t always easy to tell, but many are moving quickly to establish strong footholds. It’s too early to pick winners and it will be interesting to see how/if these efforts payoff.
No one wants to be left behind.
Interestingly, the ongoing AI boom, which hangs over all-things-technology these days, hasn’t seemed to slow the quantum technology land rush though it may have slowed funding. Also interesting some states with plentiful quantum companies — California comes to mind — don’t seems to have a single concentrated effort.
Related links
Go (Mountain) West, Quantum Workers! CU, CUbit, and Elevate Quantum Issue Workforce Roadmap
Building the Quantum Economy — Chicago Style
What’s the Status of Quantum-HPC Integration? What’s it Good for?
Chattanooga Quantum Collaborative Announces Details
Hamburg Consortium to Develop Full Stack Quantum Solution for Image Data Processing
3. The Soaring Value of Collaboration
The go-it-alone crowd in quantum computing is shrinking. To be fair, it’s always been a small community with lots of conversations and paper-sharing/reading within it. That said, the number and depth of collaborations is mushrooming, many around common concerns such as error correction, but really these partnerships now encompass virtually every phase QC develop and commercialization.
Take a look at Bob Sorensen’s terrific slide below. It’s from his talk at Q2B last month. Yes, it’s a test for the eye, but it captures the range partnerships and collaborations in quantum science today. As he was would no doubt agree, it’s incomplete as many more collaborations exist, but its value as an exemplar is significant.
Sorensen, chief quantum watcher for Hyperion Research, says, “The rapid increase in QC partnerships at every level is a clear indicator that the sector has entered the next critical stage of evolution. Just as Boeing doesn’t make jet engines, Goodyear doesn’t build cars, and McDonalds doesn’t raise cattle, smart QC vendors will increasingly seek to hone their specific value-added capabilities while partnering within a maturing ecosystem to ultimately provide a better total solution to end users.”
While many companies still profess the full-stack-company mantra, the practical truth is even they are engaging in meaningful collaborations. It turns out, there’s really no other way.
4. Stock Market Swings, 2 Casualties, but Signs of Hope
Despite the growing optimism, quantum computing remains a risky endeavor.
Zapata Computing, which started in 2017 as a pure-play QC software company, pivoted to an AI emphasis, and went public through a SPAC with Andretti Acquisition Corp, then ceased operations in October. The Harvard spinout’s fate is a cautionary tale about uncertainties in weak user demands. Norwegian company Nordic Quantum Computing also shut down. Alibaba and Baidu dumped their quantum business in 2023. Clearly ‘user-based’ revenue is scarce.
The worldwide market (aside from funding rounds and government contracts which amount to the same thing) is still small; it will finish this year at around $1 billion headed to about $1.544 billion in 2026, according to Hyperion Research. That’s a nice roughly 22% annual growth but still not a big market. Yet.
D-Wave likes to point out it is open for business and has customers. And indeed, it is open for business and has product offerings and has a few customers with application being used in production. No small achievement and real congratulations are due. But we’ll need to see more active customers — let’s say 10-to-a-dozen — with applications being used in production and corresponding growth in revenue before calling an active market happening.
There are signs the financial markets may be starting to think that time isn’t so far off.
D-Wave (NYSE: QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) are among the few pure-play quantum computing to go public and both were punished early and faced delisting more than once. As of this writing they are surging. Another early player IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) has fared well for some time. Whether the current surge is a sign of confidence or momentary blips is up for debate.
(Stock prices below show at the time of this writing)
Rumors of planned IPOs have swirled around other early quantum pioneers — Quantinuum, for example. In Quantinuum’s instance, going public would provide an exit for Honeywell from which Quantinuum was spun out. There’s been speculation that Honeywell is investigating disaggregating itself into several pieces.
Stay tuned.
Related links
Zapata Computing, Early Quantum-AI Software Specialist, Ceases Operations
Rigetti Computing Regains Compliance with Nasdaq
D-Wave Achieves NYSE Compliance Again with Most Recent Share Price Recovery
Quantum Companies D-Wave and Rigetti Again Face Stock Delisting
The VC View: Quantonation’s Deep Dive into Funding Quantum Start-ups
Qubits 2024: D-Wave’s Steady March to Quantum Success
5. NQIA 2.0 — What’s in The Reauthorization Act (MAYBE)
It’s starting to look like the National Quantum Initiative Act of 2018 may actually get reauthorized. In December a formal bill was submitted to the Senate that authorizes $2.7 billion over five years. The original Act set in motion the U.S. national quantum effort; it established, among other things, the five National Quantum Information Science research centers and also direct NIST to help establish the Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-Q).
The latest bill’s sponsors — Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Chair of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), member of the Committee, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) — say the reauthorization will shift focus from basic science to fostering commercial development.
Here are a few bullets from the bill:
- Establishes up to three new NIST quantum centers to advance research in quantum sensing, measurement and engineering.
- Creates five new NSF Multidisciplinary Centers for Quantum Research and Education, a quantum workforce coordination hub and quantum testbeds at the NSF’s Technology, Innovations, and Partnerships Directorate.
- Authorizes NASA quantum R&D activities, including quantum satellite communications and quantum sensing research initiatives.
- Creates prize challenges to accelerate the development of quantum applications and algorithms through public-private collaboration.
- Requires the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to develop an international quantum cooperation strategy to coordinate R&D activities with allies of the United States.
Industry is throwing its weight behind the bill as noted in these two statements in support:
“QED-C wholeheartedly supports the bipartisan NQI Reauthorization Act being introduced in the Senate by the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. The Act will ensure US leadership by supporting a broad portfolio of basic research, promoting engagement with industry and international partners, and building a quantum-ready workforce,” said Celia Merzbacher, Executive Director of the Quantum Economic Development Consortium.
“IonQ applauds Senator Maria Cantwell in her efforts to reauthorize the National Quantum Initiative Act (NQI). The NQI is instrumental in driving the U.S. national quantum strategy and demonstrates how policy can support technology leadership. Now is the time for the U.S. government to employ quantum computing and networking technologies to help address many of society’s complex challenges in areas such as security, finance, manufacturing and life sciences. We encourage a swift passage of this necessary legislation,” said Peter Chapman, President and CEO of IonQ.
Things seemed gloomier about NQIA’s prospects last year (See HPCwire coverage). This year the mood is upbeat. (BTW – As required by law the NQI supplement to the U.S. budget was released in December which pertains to the existing program.)
Fingers crossed.
Related links
National Quantum Initiative Act Reauthorization Bill Calls for $2.7B and New Centers
6. NIST Pushes Post Quantum Security Adoption
No one believes quantum computers able to decrypt current (RSA-dominated) encryption methods are going to fire up soon. But they are coming. In August, NIST issued its first formal standards for Post Quantum Cryptography standards. Already there’s a steady stream of new tools moving to market. NIST doesn’t expect the transition to be fast and has issued guidance (Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standard). Eventually all government agencies and most contractors will be required meet the new standards.
As noted in the report, “National Security Memorandum 10 (NSM-10) establishes the year 2035 as the primary target for completing the migration to PQC across Federal systems [NSM10]: “Any digital system that uses existing public standards for public‑key cryptography, or that is planning to transition to such cryptography, could be vulnerable to an attack by a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC). To mitigate this risk, the United States must prioritize the timely and equitable transition of cryptographic systems to quantum-resistant cryptography, with the goal of mitigating as much of the quantum risk as is feasible by 2035.”
The report goes into considerable detail. Here are two sample tables.
Making the transition to PQC is expected to be difficult and costly. Dustin Moody, a NIST PQC leader and one of the authors of the draft transition document told HPCwire back in June, “Very often, you’re going to need to use sophisticated tools that are being developed to assist with that. Also talk to your vendors, your CIOs, your CEOs to make sure they’re aware and that they’re planning for budgets to do this. Just because a quantum computer [able to decrypt] isn’t going to be built for, who knows, maybe 15 years, they may think I can just put this off, but understanding that threat is coming sooner than than you realize is important.”
Related links
NIST Issues Draft Post Quantum Cryptography Transition Strategy and Timeline
NIST Issues Post Quantum Cryptography Standards and Calls for their Adoption
NIST Q&A: Getting Ready for the Post Quantum Cryptography Threat? You Should be.
Soundbites for 2025
1. Where’s the AI-Quantum Locomotive Headed?
There’s a flood of press and promotion around blended quantum potential and AI but relatively little about exactly how they will work together. Some of us are wondering where the much promoted AI-quantum locomotive is headed…or even exactly what it is?
Its feels like many quantum companies — for fear of missing out on the AI tsunami — are throwing the two terms together and hoping something magic happens. The volume of the promotion seems out proportion to clarification of how the two will work together. AI seems undeniably destined to touch everything; quantum computing maybe no so much.
We’re still waiting for concreteness around the often promoted Quantum-AI offerings.
2. Roadmaps Galore.
Seems like more and more companies are sharing their technology roadmaps, some with fairly detailed steps outlined, other making what seems like magical leaps. It’s time to hold all of these companies accountable for started plans.
3. Peter Shorr wins IEEE Claude Shannon Award for 2025 award.
If you don’t know who Peter is, you’re probably reading the wrong article. It was his eponymous algorithm able to decrypt current encryption codes that sent shivers through governments and industry alike (more on his award). The MIT mathematician and his wife penned the following poem:
If computers that you build are quantum,
Then spies of all factions will want ’em.
Our codes will all fail,
And they’ll read our email,
Till we’ve crypto that’s quantum, and daunt ’em.
4. Export Controls and the Trump Factor.
Ok then. The already tightening export export restrictions on quantum tech are likely grow even tighter given incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s many public statements around China. There’s not much more to say than that, at least for now.
5. NSF National Quantum Virtual Laboratory Gambit.
The NQVL is a terrific idea if NSF can pull it off. It’s a program to create a distributed quantum computing infrastructure (hardware and software) to provide much wider access to researchers across many domains. The idea is to jumpstart creation of needed resources, skill sets, use cases, and access for NSF researchers. The latest six NQVL projects were announced in December.
6. DARPA’s Dare.
Quantum computing won’t work is DARPA’s (tongue in cheek) stated opening position for its new Quantum Benchmarking and Test Bed program. “We will walk into the room and say, ‘We’re pretty sure whatever you’re doing is not going to work,” is how DARPA program manager Joe Altepeter offers the challenge, adding “It is in the best interest of any company who thinks they can prove they are on the path to industrial quantum computing — definitely including companies who have previously applied to US2QC — to compete for QBI funding,”
Kidding aside, Altepeter says DARPA will vigorously promote products that do well in DARPA’s evaluation program.
Go grab the funding!
7. Here Come the Integrators?
At least two companies — ParTec and TreQ — are jumping into the quantum systems integrator business, including integrating quantum with classical systems. One question is whether there is such a business at this point? It does seem a natural outgrowth as more quantum systems and system components become available. The question is when. What’s your guess? ParTec has a product, Q-bridge, for integrating quantum and classical systems.
8. The LRZ, et al of Europe Quantum Locomotive.
Europe’s well-funded plunge into quantum computing earned a spot in this column last year under heading — Can Europe Carve Out a Leadership Position in Quantum? This year’s answer is not merely an unambiguous yes, but also a suggestion that it’s on the verge of taking the lead in the Global race to deliver practical quantum computing. The LRZ stats listed above are just one example.
Don’t take Europe’s push for granted.
9. Qubits Battle Continues.
In terms of distinguishing this year from last year, it’s almost enough to say the battle among qubit modalities remains far from over. That said, the recent QEC advances using surface codes on semiconductor-based superconducting qubits is an important step for its advocates. Quantum researcher John Preskill has some good observations on the evolving qubit zoo in his Q2B talk.
Scaling remains a challenge for all gate-based systems, regardless of qubit type. Semiconductor-based superconducting qubits would seem to have the advantage here if the QEC problem can be licked. We’ll all be looking for more specifics on scaling technology in 2025 as efforts to modularize systems become more concrete.
